A Mild Winter Is Headed Our Way, says NOAA

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Parts of the northwest, including Oregon, Washington, and Montana, have a greater-than-50% chance of experiencing warmer-than-expected temperatures.

The Climate Prediction Center issues updates its 3-month outlooks once per month, NOAA said, and the next update for this winter is expected November 15. Meteorologists predict theres a 75 percent chance itll be around this winter.

Another factor in the forecast, Halper said, is long-term warming from human-caused climate change.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said. In the Mid-Atlantic region, the amount of snow has depended on the strength of El Nino. The active El Nino winter in North America - in the Midwest and in Canada is usually become warmer.

Meanwhile, the southern-third of the US and much of the East Coast could be hunkering down for a wetter than normal December through January.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook seems to at least indirectly contradict the one released by the 2019 Farmers' Almanac, an annual Lewiston-based publication which uses a mathematical and astronomical formula created in 1818 to come up with long-range forecasts.

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"No part of the U.S.is favored to have below-average temperatures", Halpert said.

"Up in ME the forecast is actually what we call "equal chances", which means there's no tilt in those odds, so it's just as likely to be a wetter-than-normal winter as a drier-than-normal winter", says Halpert. The map below shows the mean temperatures for winter 2014. The warmest conditions were found in the Southwest. Spring arrived weeks ahead of time, and Chicago basked in record 70-degree warmth in February.

It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

The winter before that, 2015-2016, was the warmest on record for the Lower 48, despite the big snowstorm in the Mid-Atlantic.

How confident should you be in this outlook? This is more of an overarching forecast of how the three winter months could average out. Overall the winter looks a lot like the past few, he said.

A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

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